East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Today's trade data for October were interesting, being stronger in Taiwan, but weaker in China. Taiwan's trade surplus surged again, but despite the narrowing in China, fx reserves rose in October. Also today, a note delving into an under-explored aspect of China's FAI data.

Paul Cavey

Nov 7, 2025 • 2 min read

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Taiwan – trade surplus reaches 30% of GDP

I am running out of superlatives to describe Taiwan's export story in 2025. So I'll let the numbers speak for themselves: today's October data show semi exports have grown 70% this year, pushing the overall trade surplus last month to 30% of GDP, and the bilateral surplus with the US to 20% of GDP

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China – a different way of looking at FAI

Many explanations have been put forward for the drop in YoY FAI. I have another: YoY catching up with the weakness already clear in the MoM. That's tongue-in-cheek, but looking at the under-used MoM series for IP, retail sales and FAI add useful perspectives on what is happening in the economy.

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China – exports weaken, but not of cars

China's exports, which had been so strong, were weaker in October. That could be the lagged impact of tariffs. The suddenness of the change suggests other factors are involved, but we'll find out more with next week's detailed data. For now, it is worth noting that auto exports continue to rise.