East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

I've been busy today, so just a couple of quick comments, covering BOJ board member Koeda Junko's speech, and the further rise in Taiwan's current account surplus.

Paul Cavey

Nov 20, 2025 • 2 min read

Subscribers Only

East Asia Today

A quiet day for data today, with only machine orders in Japan and Korean IIP data for Q3. The IIP data are interesting, showing Korea's structural emergence as an international creditor. I would have expected that to put a ceiling on $KRW, but that impact really hasn't been obvious in recent months.

Subscribers Only

East Asia Today

A longer piece looking at whether the rise in DRAM prices means Korea macro in 2026 will look like Taiwan macro in 2026. Also, household credit data in Korea (a bit slower), and more detailed October trade data for China, showing that while exports overall were weak, shipments of cars weren't.

Subscribers Only

Korea – next macro beneficiary of the chip supercycle?

I don't know nearly enough about tech to decide whether this is a memory supercycle. But it certainly looks like it might be, which raises the possibility that macro in Korea in 2026 could have shades of Taiwan macro in 2025.