East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

The big policy event today was BOJ Governor Ueda's speech, which further increased the likelihood of a near-term hike. In terms of data, Japan released quarterly profits data (strong in non-manufacturing) and weak PMIs for the region contrasted with strong semiconductor export data for Korea.

Paul Cavey

Dec 1, 2025 • 2 min read

Subscribers Only

Region – manufacturing PMIs and Korean exports

The mfg PMIs across the region mainly remain below 50. That shows that conditions outside of semiconductors remain poor. Semi is strong, and in Korean in export data for November, are departing from a normal cycle. Goods input prices pressures are rebounding, reflecting weak currencies.

Subscribers Only

Japan – Ueda becomes constructive again

The tone of governor Ueda's speech today suggests a rate hike is close. He claims that risks to the US are receding, identifies five recent positive wage developments, and with firms' price and wage behaviour changing, argues that exchange rate changes are more likely to affect prices.

Subscribers Only

Last week, next week

The main themes: stabilisation in China, but the picture is muddy; the discrepancy between clear economic boom in Taiwan versus stability in inflation and TWD; upside risks in Korea that still look like risks than reality; the BOJ facing a real fiscal boost when the economy is already recovering.