East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

In addition to all today's data from China, some comments on Friday's monetary release and yesterday's high-frequency price data. In Japan, in addition to the Tankan, the BOJ today released the results of a special wage survey. Taiwan FDI data show investment in the US this year falling to USD4bn.

Paul Cavey

Dec 15, 2025 • 3 min read

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China

Like last month, November data show a contrast between real weakness in some areas of the economy (such as property, goods consumption) and more stability in others (pricing, output). Overall, however, the balance is once again shifting towards more weakness.

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Japan – a strong Tankan

In Q4 business sentiment improved, the labour market tightened, price pressures picked up, and capex intentions stayed elevated. The BOJ is set to hike on Friday. Today's survey, like other recent data, raise the risk that the bank can also send a clearer message about the outlook for rates in 2026.

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Last week, next week

China: the nominal stabilisation is fragile. Japan: with the cycle looking good, the risk of a BOJ upside surprise is the highest since July 2024. Korea: the upside scenario from the semi cycle still isn't the base case. Taiwan: macro becomes more interesting if the chip cycle sustains into 2026.