East Asia Econ

Japan – Board thinks the time for another hike is getting closer

The summary of the October BOJ meeting show a stronger consensus that the time is approaching for another rate hike. That is partly because concern about tariffs is fading. It is less about domestic demand: data today show consumption trending up, but still only very slowly.

Paul Cavey

Nov 10, 2025 • 3 min read

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East Asia Today

In addition to yesterday's inflation data from China (stronger at the margin), today's update includes the summary of opinions from the BOJ's October meeting, September consumption data for Japan, and September wages for Taiwan.

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Last week, next week

Data last week showed Taiwan remaining as one of the world's major beneficiaries of AI adoption. A big question for 2026 is whether Korea joins the party. Other themes are fiscal uncertainty in Japan, and further signs of stabilisation in China's underlying cycle.

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China – less deflation in Q4

CPI and PPI data for October show another lessening of deflation, and leads point to that trend being sustained through year-end. That is important, and fits with my idea of a bottoming for the underlying cycle. But I am not convinced yet, with services CPI inflation still too low.