East Asia Econ

Japan – BOJ cautious on exports, confident on wages

Today there were the usual month-end data releases of retail sales, the labour market, and construction, as well as Tokyo October CPI. More interesting was the BOJ's full outlook report, analysing exports, capex resilience, food prices and consumption, as well as wages and prices.

Paul Cavey

Oct 31, 2025 • 6 min read

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East Asia Today

Lots of data today, with the usual month-end releases for China, Japan and Korea. Also interesting were the analytical boxes in the BOJ's outlook report. Finally, an update on tariffs after yesterday's China-US talks. The conclusion: with the CNY depreciating, China doesn't look very disadvantaged.

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China – weak official PMIs, other indicators better

With the official manufacturing PMI dropping to a two-year low in October, it is clear China's cycle continues to struggle. The offset is the improvement in the S&P/RatingDog versions (at least through September), and the better CKGSB survey this month.

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East Asia Today

Aside from Trump-Xi, the big event today was the BOJ meeting, though that was much more about continuity than change. In terms of data, Japan released trade data for the first 10 days of October. Korea's JOLTS data for September were weaker than the earlier labour market data had suggested likely.