East Asia Econ

Japan – consumption growing at pre-covid trend

The BOJ's consumption proxy ticked up MoM in June. That followed a dip in May, so in Q2 as a whole consumption is only just higher than Q1. Based on the BOJ's data, in level terms, aggregate consumption is still 7% smaller than at the end of Q319. But the growth run-rate is now similar to pre-covid.

Paul Cavey

Aug 7, 2025 • 1 min read

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China – a weak nominal upturn

While the PMIs don't point to any real improvement, in nominal terms there's been a lift, with input prices above 50 again. That's in line with the credit impulse. But the credit impulse might already have turned, and while PPI deflation has lessened, output prices don't suggest stronger CPI.

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East Asia Today

It's been a big week for data in Korea, and there was more today, with the end-month activity numbers. Retail sales bounced, but other sectors remained subdued. Data for Japan today showed retail sales being weak, but consumer confidence has improved, and UE has fallen to a new post-covid low.

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Japan – UE falls to post-covid low

The fall in the UE rate in July to 2.3% isn't substantively important. The mechanics behind it were more noteworthy, in particular a ticking down in the part rate. Other data today show a softening of inflation in Tokyo in August, and nationwide retail sales falling to the lowest level in 2 years.