East Asia Econ

Japan – real wages stop falling

A few releases today – October wages and CA, November Economy Watchers survey, and Q3 revised GDP. The overall picture is mixed, though the acceleration in inflation and drop in real wages into early 2025 has now stabilised, and that is allowing an improvement in household sentiment.

Paul Cavey

Dec 8, 2025 • 3 min read

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East Asia Today

China's exports rebounded in November, and so did the trade surplus. In Japan, there is lots of data to discuss today: the second release of Q3 GDP, EW survey, wage growth and BOP. There are some mixed messages, but one theme is stabilising real wages and stronger household confidence.

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China – exports up again

The weakness in exports of October reversed in November, with a rebound in growth to ROW, and shipments to the US stabilising. Auto shipments reached a new all-time high, and are growing as quickly this year as in the initial take-off in 2023-24. Import demand declined, so the trade surplus rose.

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Last week, next week

Regional themes: lessening deflation in China, but no sign of real recovery; the BOJ is likely to hike this month, but the JPY needs a hawkish hike; outflows into overseas equities in Korea change usual exchange rate relationships; inflation risks in Korea and Taiwan if AI chip demand is sustained