Japan – three scenarios for the JPY
My latest video, discussing the JPY outlook in the context of this year's two shocks: tariffs, obviously, but also the rebound in inflation that caused a new sharp fall in consumer confidence. The risk from US policy is still growing, but, importantly, the rebound in prices is losing momentum.
Chapters:
0:00 - Introduction: Tariff Threats and Japan's Economic Headlines
0:32 - Trump's Tariff Risks and Impacts on Japan
0:57 - BOJ Rate Hikes, Forecasts, and Economic Shifts
1:57 - Banking Sector Recovery and Credit Availability
3:03 - Labor Market Evolution: From Lifetime Employment to Flexibility
7:09 - International Trade: Rise of China and Terms of Trade Shocks
9:25 - Inflation and Deflation Trends in Japan
11:44 - BOJ Policies Under Kuroda and Abe
13:20 - Post-COVID Context: Yen Weakening and Global Influences
15:39 - Recent Inflation: Imported vs. Domestic Pressures
18:17 - Transition to Wage-Driven Inflation: Labor Tightness and Surveys
22:22 - Strength in Non-Manufacturing and Services Sector
25:11 - Recent Shocks: Goods Inflation and Rice Price Surge
27:30 - Economic Scenarios: Tariffs, Consumer Confidence, and BOJ Outlook
30:24 - Exchange Rate Implications and Yen Paths
34:19 - Summary and Final Thoughts on Japan's Future