East Asia Econ

Japan – wage data mixed, but sentiment firm

The BOJ's quarterly regional sakura report shows conditions holding up, and the dip in consumer confidence in December isn't concerning given the post-March bounce. Wage growth in November was mixed, but can be expected to rebound in December on stronger bonuses.

Paul Cavey

Jan 8, 2026 • 3 min read

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China – inflation up, for now

The second-derivative improvement in inflation is continuing, and should be seen in a better deflator when the Q4 GDP data are released later this month. However, there's not yet enough to think the trend can persist beyond Q126. One factor that could derail the improvement would be a stronger CNY.

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Korea –outflows still strong in November

November BOP data show another big current account surplus – and more big outflows into offshore equities. We can't be sure that outflows have yet peaked. But with the KRW cheap, semi exports gaining momentum and the government taking KRW stabilisation measures, risk around the currency are shifting

Public Post

China – the case for a floor

My latest video, discussing the lessening of deflationary pressure, whether that can continue, and what the implications are for markets.