Korea - April labour market
There's nothing in the labour market data for April to make the BOK less hawkish.
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There's nothing in the labour market data for April to make the BOK less hawkish.
The last BOK monetary policy meeting clearly showed that inflation was front and centre for the bank. Today's inflation data do nothing to change that prioritisation
The export cycle is showing clearer signs of at lest peaking, if not starting to roll over, with headline YoY export growth slowing again in April from 18.2% in March to 12.6%.
Korea's April business sentiment survey reaffirms recent themes for the economy. The cycle is now slowing, but not yet weak, and in fact on its own still strong enough to keep the BOK in tightening territory. At the same time inflation risks remain high. The central bank is likely to remain hawkish.
The Bank of Korea decided today to raise the policy rate by a further 25bp, the fourth hike in this current cycle. From the perspective of BOK leadership - the bank currently being between governors - this was a mild surprise. But from the point of view of the economy, it was less unexpected. Activity has shown signs of peaking, but in recent weeks inflation has become more of a
After the jump in February, it wasn't a surprise that labour market data softened in March. That just looks like a correction though
Korean headline CPI inflation rose again in March to 4.1% YoY. That's the highest since 2011, and well above the BOK's 2% target for inflation.