East Asia Econ

Korea – uncertain, but with conviction

For me, the tone of today's BOK meeting was a surprising mix of uncertainty and conviction. On the one hand, the bank stressed that the outlook is unclear, depending on events in the Middle East. On the other, it seems very sure that inflation will be quite a lot higher than 2%, and growth lower.

Paul Cavey

Apr 10, 2026 • 3 min read

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East Asia Today

A busy day today, with CPI data for China, PPI for both China and Japan, foreign trade data in Taiwan, and a monetary policy meeting in Korea that was more interesting than I'd been expecting.

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Taiwan – export surge continues

Exports in March were strong again. There aren't yet signs of the Iran war derailing the chip cycle, and while energy imports will increase more quickly, the impact on the trade surplus will be limited. The outlook for Taiwan as of now is resilient growth and higher inflation.

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China – inflation returns

That the return of PPI inflation in March was driven by an energy price shock isn't positive. In fact, though, the recovery in PPI pre-dates the Iran war, beginning in June last year. Positive inflation reinforces the macro narrative that China's cycle is more stable, supporting rates and the CNY.