East Asia Econ

Korea – "upside risks have increased"

The BOK isn't getting carried away by the remarkable rise in semiconductor prices, but it did today say the chip cycle is moving growth risks to the upside. It also terminated talk of rate cuts, though that isn't just about growth, with the bank making clear that KRW weakness is a key consideration.

Paul Cavey

Jan 15, 2026 • 2 min read

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Japan – PPI still firm

Japan's current run of PPI inflation is almost the longest since at least the 1980s, but looks well-supported. Prices have recoupled with the global cycle, and are being boosted by JPY weakness. Furthermore, while it was feared that tariffs would be deflationary, export prices are rising.

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East Asia Today

China's exports ended 2025 with a bang, with auto shipments surging. Import demand is much weaker, but did at least trend up last year. Also today, some charts on bank lending in Japan, which is strong, and a cycle review of Korea before tomorrow's BOK meeting.

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Korea – unchanged, except for DRAM

Domestic sluggishness and financial stability concerns aren't changing, so likely keep the BOK on hold tomorrow. But there is a new development: the 10x rise in the DRAM price. To me, that is shifting cycle risks to the upside. Tomorrow's meeting will be important if that is the bank's view too.