East Asia Econ

Korea – business sentiment turning

After last month's puzzling fall, business sentiment bounced in October. With the diffusion across sectors still rising, it seems reasonable to expect a further rise in sentiment towards neutral. But there still are headwinds to recovery: construction and real estate, exports, and the labour market.

Paul Cavey

Oct 29, 2025 • 2 min read

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China – shifts in financing, but not quite what is wanted

The PBC's quarterly surveys cover firms and banks too, but I think the household version is most interesting. In Q3, household sentiment is weak, but mixed. Price expectations are very soft. Some of the savings data support the idea that China's economy is near a structural turning point.

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East Asia Today

Today's focus is Korea, with consumer confidence and GDP, and yesterday's loan officer survey. Elsewhere, the BOJ has published its own cuts of trade and CPI data. That includes "underlying inflation", though these days the bank itself seems to believe reality is more complicated.

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Korea – inconclusive data

With yesterday's loan officer survey, and today's release of consumer confidence and GDP, there is lots to dig into. There are some important takeaways, but overall, the releases don't provide clarity on the two big issues facing the economy: house prices, and the outlook for growth.