Last week, next week

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Highlights

Paul Cavey

Dec 8, 2024 • 5 min read

East Asia Today

Lots of sentiment surveys to discuss today: business confidence in Korea (better), consumer confidence in Japan (also better, even though inflation expectations remain high) and Q3 economy-wide surveys for China. Also, some details of China's 15th FYP, with some encouraging language on consumption.

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China – shifts in financing, but not quite what is wanted

The PBC's quarterly surveys cover firms and banks too, but I think the household version is most interesting. In Q3, household sentiment is weak, but mixed. Price expectations are very soft. Some of the savings data support the idea that China's economy is near a structural turning point.

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Korea – business sentiment turning

After last month's puzzling fall, business sentiment bounced in October. With the diffusion across sectors still rising, it seems reasonable to expect a further rise in sentiment towards neutral. But there still are headwinds to recovery: construction and real estate, exports, and the labour market.