East Asia Econ

Last week, next week

Trump's visit will dominate the news this week, particularly his trade talks with China and Korea, and whether he says anything about the JPY in Japan. It now doesn't look like the BOJ will hike on Thursday, but the tone should be more positive. The data highlight will be Korean business confidence.

Paul Cavey

Oct 27, 2025 • 7 min read

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Japan – services PPI ticks up in September

The steady drop in services PPI inflation stabilised in September, with core ticking up to 2.9% YoY. The data aren't good enough to prove the decline is now over, but I do think a floor should be close. Lumpiness in the data suggests a short-term bounce, and the labour market remains tight.

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China – no cuts in export prices

China has now released trade price and volume data for September. They show export volumes holding up despite tariffs, and that isn't because of price cuts. The recent mild upturn in import demand has also sustained. That calls into question the sharp fall in last week's FAI data.

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East Asia Today

Japan CPI data showed headline near 3% and rising (inflation!), but core near 1% and falling (deflation!). Price data in China, by contrast, are stable, which is at odds with weak FAI. Finally, my updated trade mapper dashboard, which now covers autos and the battery and rare earth supply chains.