East Asia Econ

Last week, next week

In the first stage of the Iran War, China has been the relative winner, and Japan the loser. The next stage would be yet higher energy prices that challenge the sustainability of efforts to control inflation for consumers, and mean economies start to face a negative demand shock too.

Paul Cavey

Mar 23, 2026 • 5 min read

Public Post

East Asia Today

It isn't worth paying too much attention to China's detailed trade statistics for Jan-Feb, given new year distortions. That said, the trend rise in capital goods imports is an under-appreciated shift. Tourist arrivals in Japan remained strong in February, as did Taiwan export orders.

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East Asia Today

As expected, no change in policy from either the BOJ or Taiwan's CBC in today's monetary policy meetings. Concerns about inflation are greater in Japan, which makes sense given firm CPI and an improving cycle. The theme for the CBC remains strong growth and modest price increases.

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East Asia Today

Flow of funds data show ongoing improvement in Japan's fiscal position through end-25. Exports ticked down in February, but because of Chinese New Year rather a new step-down. Employment in Korea rose in February, but the more noticeable change is the further rise in the female part rate.