East Asia Econ

Last week, next week

This week's three themes: 1) rising inflation despite government attempts to hold prices down; 2) growth that might be starting to wobble but hasn't clearly turned down yet; and 3) huge uncertainty about the direction of events in the Middle East.

Paul Cavey

Mar 30, 2026 • 6 min read

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East Asia Today

The impact of the oil price spike is starting to be seen, with inflation expectations rising and sentiment falling in the business survey in Korea, and the consumer survey in Taiwan. Also today, 10-day exports and underlying inflation in Japan, and profits in China. In total, 24 charts.

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Korea – prices up, sentiment down

The easy takeaway from the rise in prices and fall in sentiment in the BOK's business sentiment survey for March/April is stagflation. I think there are reasons as yet to discount the idea that activity has slowed, but if that is right, then the rise in inflation makes BOK rate hikes more likely.

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East Asia Today

Like goods PPI, services PPI inflation in Japan has slowed. However, energy prices will now push up goods prices, while wages point to upstream services inflation re-accelerating too. Taiwan's labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate dipping to 3.3% in February.