East Asia Econ

Weekly – two questions: oil, and China

Two of the big questions for markets in the region are 1) the implications for monetary policy as oil prices fall, and 2) what is happening with China's cycle, and what does that – and the strengthening of the USD – mean for the USD.

Paul Cavey

Jun 29, 2026 • 5 min read

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East Asia Today

A chart pack to summarise the longer note of earlier this week on the semi supercycle in Asia. Also, some more details on China's import growth in May, Tokyo CPI and 10-day export growth in Japan, the rise in Korean equity investment in the US and another strong monitoring index in Taiwan.

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Region – commodity boom or BS....slide pack

Earlier this week, I published a longer note delving into the macro and market implications of the semiconductor boom. You prefer pictures to text, so this is the accompanying chart pack.

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East Asia Today

Taken at face value, China's latest trade volume data show that the rise in import demand of Q1 has already fully reversed. Flow of funds data in Japan indicate government debt outstanding at around 200% of GDP, but corporates remaining savers. The BSI survey in Korea was underwhelming.