Last week, next week

I don't think the China-EU sectoral deal means a China-EU CNY deal is coming. The cycle continues to improve in Japan. Export momentum in Korea and Taiwan remain strong, with more signs of spillover into inflation in Taiwan. Links to all last week's research, as well as my latest podcast appearance.

Paul Cavey

Oct 12, 2026 • 6 min read

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East Asia in Four Charts

China's auto trade balance with Asia and the EU, the manufacturing upturn in Japan, another large current account surplus in Korea, and further acceleration in Taiwan's exports. Also, I was very happy to have the chance to go back on the Macro Hive podcast, with the link included here.

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East Asia Today

China's upstream price data confirm the rebound in costs seen in the PMI. Nonetheless, the PBC continued to inject liquidity in September. Details of aggregate household incomes in Japan in Q2 are useful for understanding Japan macro, though the data don't all point in one direction.

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Japan – household incomes still weak

Q2 aggregate consumption was weak because incomes were too. Asset incomes are rising, but wages are soft, and in cash terms, the tax burden has been increasing. But while spending in aggregate terms is constrained, the population is falling, so in per capita terms there is actually recovery.