Last week, next week

Paul Cavey

Jul 10, 2022

East Asia Today

Some highlights of the chart pack I've been working on looking at the China Shock (and China Squeeze). The China Shock isn't over, with data today showing R&D spending reaching a new high of 2.8% of GDP in 2025. In Korea, the TOT rose further in September, and unemployment remained low.

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China – squeeze, shock or shortfall

A chart pack focused on China's trade: the China Squeeze isn't so severe; the China Shock is, but is likely to intensify further; as important as both is a shortfall in imports, which is broad-based, and worsening. That reflects weak demand, which Beijing still shows no urgency in addressing.

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East Asia Today

China's credit data remain weak, and deposit trends point to deflation risk in 2027. BOJ Koeda's speech was hawkish. Korea money supply growth slowed, and with equities falling, FCI has tightened. That market nervousness on AI isn't shared by TSMC management, and the labour market remains tight.