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Paul Cavey

Jul 10, 2022 •

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China – industrial prices stabilise

YoY upstream price inflation is fading. Sequentially, however, there's some stabilisation. That's consistent with policy, but isn't yet likely to be reflecting a fundamental turn. Activity usually improves after the summer, and leading indicators like liquidity preference continue to fall.

Paul Cavey Sep 24, 2022 • 1 min read

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Taiwan - August IP and retail sales

Industrial output was stable in August, remaining below the peak of March, and leads suggest a further slowdown in the next few months. It is unlikely consumption will be robust enough to compensate for this industrial slowdown, even though retail sales ticked up in August.

Paul Cavey Sep 23, 2022 • 2 min read

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Taiwan - not much tightening

With the labour market not particularly hot, and the CBC forecasting inflation of less than 2% next year, it isn't surprising that tightening remains slow. That creates depreciation pressure on the TWD, but for the time being, that's not a trend the CBC will feel a need to fight very hard against.

Paul Cavey Sep 22, 2022 • 2 min read

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