China – upstream prices rebound

The big cycle change in recent weeks has been the rebound in upstream prices, a trend confirmed by 1o-day data for the end of September. That is mainly energy, but it does nonetheless boost nominal growth.

Paul Cavey

Oct 9, 2026 • 1 min read

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East Asia Today

Credit growth continues to slow in China. The trend for M1 also remains down, warning of more deflationary pressure in 2027. In Q3, the current account surplus widened. In Korea, the TOT dipped in October, hinting at a peak in the spectacular rise in national incomes of recent months.

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Korea – first signs of a peak

The terms of trade dipped in October, hinting at a peak in the spectacular rise in national incomes of recent months. However, when thinking about the implications, two caveats are needed: is the October decline monthly noise, and is the rise in national incomes just the first phase of the semi boom

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East Asia Today

Rather than Asada's speech today, I spent most of the day thinking about Ueda's much more interesting remarks at the weekend. Import price inflation in Japan accelerated in October, CPI in Korea is on track to get back to 3% this month, and interest rates in China continue to fall.