The platform for tracking and understanding East Asia macro
The major themes: the ending of the first stage of China's post-2020 forced structural adjustment; in Japan, peaking of inflation but BOJ still to hike; BOK cuts but inflation higher than I would have expected; expecting renewed TWD strength. I am now away for a few days, back on September 16th.
China's structural downturn since 2021 has likely bottomed. But I think real recovery is needed for a further rally in equities. Japan's growth and inflation have survived the tariff hit, putting the BOJ back in play. For Korea, I am questioning the BOK's outlook for inflation and thus rates.
I've spent a lot of time in recent years building an infrastructure to analyse the economies of East Asia. Doing so has given me a good understanding of the data challenges in the region. In this video, I discuss those, and introduce the platform I've built to present all the data I've collected.
Data themes remain unchanged. As tariffs – perhaps – stabilise, official sentiment is catching up to the data in Japan, with growing concern about inflation. In China and Korea, market sentiment has improved ahead of the data. Given Trump's desire for a deal, that's probably more justified in China.
A comprehensive slide pack putting cyclical developments in the context of the structural themes I've been working on: 1) China, CNY v consumption; 2) Japan, Still looking different this time; 3) Korea, Becoming East Asian and 4) Taiwan, 1980s redux.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
My latest video, discussing how Korea is managing to avoid the labour market decline that would usually be expected as the population ages. This is likely to dampen wages – and potentially inflation – in Korea relative to Taiwan, where the part rate isn't rising in the same way.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A new tool to view, chart and download macro data for the region
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
20 slides analysing structural labour market issues: the puzzle of low unemployment but weak wage growth; supply side changes that have deflected demographics; demand side strength as China offshoring ends; and the implications of the renewed trade war.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A short slidepack covering eight broad themes relevant for the region, from trade to demographics, services to surpluses.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
In LCU terms, there's little to choose between exports in the different economies. But in volumes, China and Taiwan are very strong, and Korea and Japan clearly lagging. This should have implications for CNY, TWD and KRW. For Japan, the significance is for macro if USDJPY turns.
A longer video discussing demographics, the area where Asia is most clearly leading the world. The changes in the population will clearly matter for economies, but Japan's experience shows the macro implications aren't necessarily what might be expected.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A video discussing Trump 2.0, Plaza and the outlook for East Asian economies.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.