East Asia Econ

Region – commodity boom or BS?

A longer note putting the chip supercycle in the context of commodity price surges, dismissing concerns about the narrowness of growth, and exploring the different macro dynamics in Korea versus Taiwan. One is a commodity boom, the other is indeed BS, but both suggest real exchange rate appreciation

Paul Cavey

Jun 23, 2026 • 14 min read

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East Asia Today

Assessed using import data, and China's cycle doesn't look nearly as weak as the picture painted by the bleak domestic FAI numbers. Korean exports in the first 20 days of June were strong again, pushing the trade surplus to another record high.

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Last week, next week

China's cycle is weak, but I'm not yet convinced it is getting worse. Japan's cycle will now be improving, but the BOJ needs to show that it can keep up. The BOK's hawkish turn can go further still if the KRW remains so weak. I think inflation risks in Taiwan are broader than judged by the CBC.

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East Asia Today

A new video laying out my argument for stabilisation in China. In terms of the data flow, Japan's inflation was modest in May, but that was because of subsidies, and further JPY depreciation will push up prices again. Korean PPI inflation accelerated, with the jump most obvious in services.