East Asia Econ

Region – the offset to oil: semiconductors

Whether the AI cycle sustains will be as important for East Asia markets as the Iran War. That's because the region is facing a negative energy supply shock, but also a positive semiconductor demand shock. Semiconductor trade trends are now critical for macro, as shown by these 12 charts.

Paul Cavey

Apr 24, 2026 • 4 min read

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Japan – can the BOJ afford to wait?

The BOJ seems to be messaging that it will stay on hold next week. That seems risky to me, given that while the Iran War might dent growth, it is highly likely to raise inflation. A BOJ that is further perceived as too slow will put pressure on the $JPY to pass through the artificial barrier of 160.

Public Post

Korea – two puzzles

My latest video, discussing two of the issues that puzzle me about Korea: the weakness of the KRW despite surging export growth, and the strength of inflation despite GDP growth – until today – being well below potential.

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East Asia Today

Taiwan's export orders and IP in March were strong. Exports in Korea's Q1 GDP likewise show the continued strength of the semiconductor cycle, and Japan's April manufacturing PMI also rose. By contrast, domestic demand and consumer indicators across the region are weaker.