Region – does low UE mean labour market tightness?
20 slides analysing structural labour market issues: the puzzle of low unemployment but weak wage growth; supply side changes that have deflected demographics; demand side strength as China offshoring ends; and the implications of the renewed trade war.
Region – export trends and market implications
In LCU terms, there's little to choose between exports in the different economies. But in volumes, China and Taiwan are very strong, and Korea and Japan clearly lagging. This should have implications for CNY, TWD and KRW. For Japan, the significance is for macro if USDJPY turns.
Region – Asia's dramatic demographics
A longer video discussing demographics, the area where Asia is most clearly leading the world. The changes in the population will clearly matter for economies, but Japan's experience shows the macro implications aren't necessarily what might be expected.
Region – not much momentum
Today's PMI round points to a modest rebound in activity and exports in November, but not by enough to think the manufacturing cycle is really regaining momentum. Price pressures also feel subdued, though in this Japan is an exception, with "intensified" output price inflation in November.
Region – Plaza II
Beijing will be very wary of all the talk of a Plaza II agreement. Plaza I is widely seen as a successful effort to stop Japan's economic rise. That imbalances have nonetheless persisted suggests US macro policy has a role to play, but why would US promises to get fiscal under control be credible?