East Asia Econ

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

In LCU terms, there's little to choose between exports in the different economies. But in volumes, China and Taiwan are very strong, and Korea and Japan clearly lagging. This should have implications for CNY, TWD and KRW. For Japan, the significance is for macro if USDJPY turns.

A longer video discussing demographics, the area where Asia is most clearly leading the world. The changes in the population will clearly matter for economies, but Japan's experience shows the macro implications aren't necessarily what might be expected.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A video discussing Trump 2.0, Plaza and the outlook for East Asian economies.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Highlights

Today's PMI round points to a modest rebound in activity and exports in November, but not by enough to think the manufacturing cycle is really regaining momentum. Price pressures also feel subdued, though in this Japan is an exception, with "intensified" output price inflation in November.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

Beijing will be very wary of all the talk of a Plaza II agreement. Plaza I is widely seen as a successful effort to stop Japan's economic rise. That imbalances have nonetheless persisted suggests US macro policy has a role to play, but why would US promises to get fiscal under control be credible?

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

Some analysis of the weakness of consumption in Asia. As the opening chart suggests, the big underperformer isn't either China or Japan, but rather Korea. The clear outperformer is Taiwan.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

If the US-led global trend is a sort of reversion to mean, then Asia has two very differentiated dynamics. On the one hand, there's Japan and Taiwan, which look like breaking structurally to the upside. On the other, there's China, which is more sluggish than at any time in the last 30 years.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

Our most out-of-consensus view is that Fed cuts are likely bad news for China's cycle. For Japan, we think the market needs to price in a bigger likelihood of another BOJ hike. The CBC in Taiwan likely stays on hold in the next few months, while the BOK looks set to cut soon.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.