Taiwan – April export orders

It has been clear for a while that the Asian export cycle has peaked and is moderating. The sharp fall in Taiwan export orders in April is the first sign that the slowdown is not becoming much sharper.

Taiwan export orders aren't necessarily a great leading indicator, but they are one of the measures that tells us about the state of the Asian export cycle. As a result, the sharp fall in April is important. There is already clear evidence that the Asian cycle is past the best, but the pronounced decline in Taiwan's export orders in April is the first indication that the cycle is cracking rather than just moderating. The lockdowns in China are certainly part of the reason, and they will be eventually lifted. But orders to the EU in particular, and also to the US, were weaker in April too.