East Asia Econ

Taiwan – no excitement from the CBC

The CBC didn't change policy today. It increased its growth forecast, but didn't sound excited about the outlook. It warned about excesses related to equities, but didn't announce any remedial policies. Inflation is expected to remain below 2%.

Paul Cavey

Jun 18, 2026 • 2 min read

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East Asia Today

A quiet day, because no policy change from Taiwan's CBC, and no major releases elsewhere. China did release more detailed trade data for May, and in the context of renewed worries about growth, it is important that the broader import growth of this year has persisted.

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East Asia Today

Highlights of a longer note reviewing the cycle in Taiwan before the central bank's meeting tomorrow. In Japan, machine orders, exports and the Reuters Tankan all point to a strengthening manufacturing cycle on the back of global AI demand. Also, some charts on upstream prices in China.

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Taiwan – is there a reason not to hike?

Core inflation has rarely been higher, the export economy is booming, and signs are emerging of stronger domestic demand. Core inflation is still only 2%, but yields are even lower (!), and there's plenty of asset price inflation in stocks. Hence the question: why wouldn't the CBC hike tomorrow?