East Asia Econ

Taiwan – less worried on exports

The government today confirmed the export surge of 1H – and released much less pessimistic forecasts for 2H. The underlying story is simple: AI-related demand offsetting the impact of TWD appreciation and tariffs. Exports are now expected to grow almost 25% this year, and GDP by 4.5%.

Paul Cavey

Aug 15, 2025 • 3 min read

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East Asia Today

Little sign of change in today's China macro data. So, while areas like consumption aren't as weak as the headlines suggest, in activity data overall there's little sign of stabilisation, let alone recovery. I discussed some of the issues around China, as well as the region, in a podcast last week.

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Region – podcast

I really enjoyed doing this podcast with Bilal Hafeez from Micro Hive. It was a great chance to get into a lot of the structural themes across the region that I have been working on.

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China – no change in underlying trends

Property is weak, manufacturing FAI has slowed, consumer spending on goods is soft, and price deflation isn't lifting. However, services consumption is better, and output of both goods and services is growing by more than 5%. The government likely still thinks the economy is muddling through.