Taiwan – the world's most interesting economy?

Taiwan's macro story, impressive since 2020, is increasingly entering unchartered waters. That's not just because the lift-off in growth of an already rich economy, driven by an ever-expanding manufacturing sector and ever-growing current-account surplus, has rarely (probably never) been seen before. It is also because these big changes in the economy since 2020 contrast so much with the stability of rates and, in particular, the currency, which is still being managed in the pre-takeoff regime.

I discuss some of the issues in this week's Asia Centric podcast from Bloomberg:

Subscribers can access a slide pack going through the issues here:

Taiwan – into unchartered waters

Taiwan’s macro story is fascinating. Rarely has growth in such a rich economy accelerated so much, with reindustrialisation and huge external surpluses, at the same time as rates and the currency barely move. I’d think that something has to give. Will 2026 finally be the year that it does?

East Asia EconPaul Cavey