East Asia Econ

Two things today. First, China's big data releases, which show broad macro stabilisation. Second, TSMC's quarterly earnings. Management comments were positive again, forecasting revenue growth of over 30% this year. That has read through for total exports and Taiwan's overall economy.

Lots of data today – fx settlement for China, machine orders and the Reuters Tankan in Japan, import and export prices and labour market data in Korea, and wages in Taiwan.

Today's focus is China, with the release of headline trade data for March, and upstream price data through the first 10 days of April to give an early sense of PPI inflation this month. Also, my latest video, discussing the impact of the Iran war on the outlook for the region.

China's PBC is increasing liquidity injections, with only limited feedthrough to broader monetary conditions. In Japan, by contrast, the BOJ is tapering, but bank lending growth remains strong. Korea's exports for the first 10 days of April increased sharply, pushing up the trade surplus.

A busy day today, with CPI data for China, PPI for both China and Japan, foreign trade data in Taiwan, and a monetary policy meeting in Korea that was more interesting than I'd been expecting.

A longer piece on Korea inflation dynamics, and a link to my podcast discussion on Taiwan. Japan consumer confidence fell sharply in March, illustrating the growth risks if the ceasefire doesn't hold. Korea Q4 FOF data show a structural rise in savings, that continues to be invested overseas.

Decent wage growth in Japan in February, but a terrible March EW survey; stupendous current account data in Korea, but continued equity outflows; and inflation falling in March in Taiwan, but underlying core settling at around 2%

In February, despite the strength of consumer confidence, Japanese consumption weakened. That was before the Iran war, and the consequences of the conflict also aren't evident in trade data for the first 20 days of March. They can be seen, however, in the fall in Taiwan's fx reserves last month.

More inflation indicators to report today. China's high-frequency upstream price data continue to point to a YoY rise in PPI in March for the first time since 2022. In Japan, latest data show the output gap (on the BOJ's updated methodology) tightened further in Q425.

Like the manufacturing version a couple of days ago, China S&P/RatingDog services PMI in March gave back the big gains of February. Japan's services PMI remained firm, but showed rising inflation and falling confidence. Korea February JOLTS data point to the labour market remaining soft.

More on inflation pressures in Asia, with the details of the Japan Tankan, and Korea March CPI. Also, export price deflation in China being less than often supposed, one of the highlights of February trade in volume and price terms.

Once again, the key theme in today's data releases has been inflationary pressure, seen in Japan's Tankan and the regional PMIs. By contrast, activity proxies haven't moved much. Korea's trade data help explain why: export growth in March was strong, boosted again by chip sales.

Inflation is the theme, with the rise in prices in the China March PMIs, and two documents released by the BOJ yesterday. In other data today, Korean output was stronger in February. I'd worry about holiday distortions, though a turn in construction can also be seen in the BOK's sentiment survey.

Charts on the impact on CPI and fiscal positions of policies to control energy prices, the BOJ's updates of some of the core elements of its framework, and growth in Taiwan, which was very strong in 2025, but might have accelerated even further in early 2026.

The impact of the oil price spike is starting to be seen, with inflation expectations rising and sentiment falling in the business survey in Korea, and the consumer survey in Taiwan. Also today, 10-day exports and underlying inflation in Japan, and profits in China. In total, 24 charts.

Like goods PPI, services PPI inflation in Japan has slowed. However, energy prices will now push up goods prices, while wages point to upstream services inflation re-accelerating too. Taiwan's labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate dipping to 3.3% in February.

While governments are using subsidies to lessen the impact, today's Korea consumer confidence survey suggests the Iran war might already be boosting inflation expectations. In other news, Taiwan remains the relative loser in tourist arrivals, though that is offset by the strength of goods exports.

High-frequency price data in China suggest that PPI might turn positive this month for the first time since 2022. In other releases today, underlying CPI inflation and sentiment in Japan remains firm, services prices boosted PPI in Korea in February, and IP in Taiwan last month was strong once again

Gasoline prices across the region are rising, but much less slowly than the increase in crude prices. Data through the first 20 days of March show only a modest rise in energy imports so far in Korea. At the same time, chip exports have continued to grow, pushing up the trade surplus.

It isn't worth paying too much attention to China's detailed trade statistics for Jan-Feb, given new year distortions. That said, the trend rise in capital goods imports is an under-appreciated shift. Tourist arrivals in Japan remained strong in February, as did Taiwan export orders.

As expected, no change in policy from either the BOJ or Taiwan's CBC in today's monetary policy meetings. Concerns about inflation are greater in Japan, which makes sense given firm CPI and an improving cycle. The theme for the CBC remains strong growth and modest price increases.

Flow of funds data show ongoing improvement in Japan's fiscal position through end-25. Exports ticked down in February, but because of Chinese New Year rather a new step-down. Employment in Korea rose in February, but the more noticeable change is the further rise in the female part rate.

While all the main China Jan-Feb indicators came out today, I think the more important releases were the weekend data showing a further rise in upstream prices, and fx settlement showing continued capital inflows. In Taiwan, wage growth slowed in January, but that is probably holiday related.