East Asia Econ

Even though Governor Ueda didn't in the end deliver the speech he was initially due to give today, there have been plenty of developments in Japan: wage data, business sentiment surveys, and household incomes. Elsewhere, Taiwan reported inflation data for September.

Today's data releases show fx reserves in China rising, providing further evidence of the resumption of capital inflows. In Japan, the BOJ's preferred measure of consumption weakened in August. In September, the monetary base also fell, but exports look to have stabilised.

Today's main event was Japan's markets pricing in Takaichi's victory, likened to an Abenomics 2.0 of fiscal and monetary loosening. But in Abenomics 1.0, fiscal policy wasn't loosened. And today's BOJ regional report, showing the cycle intact, doesn't allow much room for monetary loosening.

For a second day, there's most to report in Japan, with a speech from Ueda, the services PMI, labour market data and an updated output gap. With most of the surveys now in for September, we can also update regional comparisons of the soft data.

Yesterday's summary release of the Tankan showed price pressures remaining firm. That message is a bit stronger still in today's comprehensive release. Despite rising prices, consumer confidence edged up in September. Elsewhere, NPS outflows in Korea continue to offset the large CA surplus.

As usual on the 1st of the month, today there's the PMIs and full-month trade data from Korea, as well as the Q4 Tankan for Japan. The regional manufacturing cycle is soft, but Japan non-manufacturing is strong, the Korean PMI bounced, and weak PMIs haven't mattered for actual growth in Taiwan.

Today's September PMIs in China were mixed (construction PMI weak, S&P services firm), and Japan's August retail sales fell. There should have been more data, but Korea's stats website is still down following a fire, and after a holiday, Taiwan's consumer confidence survey has yet to appear.

A quiet day for domestic macro today. The only data release was Saturday's profits data in China. In Japan, MPC member Asahi Noguchi gave a speech, in which he made a couple of interesting points, but governor Ueda's speech at the end of the week will obviously matter more.

The main releases today were business confidence in Korea (weak) and September inflation for Tokyo (noisy). Also today, services exports for August for China, which offer further evidence that the boost to GDP from net exports is fading, and leading indicators for Taiwan which remain solid.

Some more information on inflation in Japan, with services PPI inflation for August, weekly rice prices into September, and the minutes of the July BOJ meeting. And from yesterday, August IP and retail sales data in Taiwan.

A few data updates today: upstream prices in China through the second 10 days of September were stable, but not rising; the flash manufacturing PMI for Japan for September weakened; and consumer confidence in Korea remains high, but property price expectations are also firm.

Data show PPI ticking up in Korea, but not by enough to think inflation is about to accelerate; if anything, services PPI continues to suggest downside risks for underlying CPI. Elsewhere, Taiwan August export orders were firm, suggesting the 1H surge in actual exports wasn't just front-loading.

More details on the emerging second wave of Chinese auto exports; detailed volume data for Japan's exports in August, showing some change, but no real dislocation; a big slowdown in exports for the first 20 days of September in Korea; and a slight rise in unemployment in Taiwan in August.

The main developments in Japan today were in Japan, with the BOJ meeting and CPI data for August. Elsewhere, China's fx settlement data suggest renewed capital inflows. Growth in consumer lending in Taiwan ticked up in August, but remains much lower than the peak of a year ago.

This is a bit later today, as I was going through the conclusions of Taiwan's CBC meeting. So that's included below, plus more details of China's August exports (providing further evidence of the re-acceleration in auto sales), as well as Japan's July machine orders.

I am catching up with things after my break. Surveys of the last few days and today's trade data for August show tariffs aren't yet triggering a big macro dislocation in Japan. That's important for the BOJ. In China, the macro data for August show the bottoming of the activity remains fragile.

In today's summary: for Japan, wages, consumer activity, and 20D exports ; and for Taiwan, FX reserves and price data. Also, one more thing to note: I will be away from a few days from Monday. The next daily update will be on Wednesday 17th September.

High-frequency price data continue to show deflation in China is as much about weak aggregate demand in construction as over-supply in manufacturing. Elsewhere, BOK BOP data show NPS buying continues to create capital outflows, offsetting the KRW impact of the structural CA surplus.

Today, top-down and bottom-up data in Korea show wage growth still slowing; the August S&P services PMI in China rose, but also reported continued pricing pressure; and the services PMI in Japan remained firm, which continues the narrative of a cycle led more by domestic than external developments.

The only major data release today was August inflation in Korea. The headlines moved a lot, but the underlying picture was stable. In Japan, BOJ deputy governor Himino gave an interesting speech. In China, a reminder of the drivers of deflation and how they might be changing.

As usual, the first day of the month is busy for data, with PMIs across the region, and also Korean export data for August, and Q2 corporate profits in Japan. The picture painted is a regional manufacturing cycle that remains soft, but hasn't been delivered a new blow by tariffs.

It's been a big week for data in Korea, and there was more today, with the end-month activity numbers. Retail sales bounced, but other sectors remained subdued. Data for Japan today showed retail sales being weak, but consumer confidence has improved, and UE has fallen to a new post-covid low.

Today's big event was Korea's MPC, and the separate release of the local version of JOLTS data. In Japan, July unit sales at Toyota and nationwide exports in the first 10 days of August were stable. Taiwan's monitoring index in July was also unchanged, suggesting GDP growth has slowed, but not much.

Today my focus was again Korea, with the important business sentiment survey for August, and a longer review of the cycle before tomorrow's BOK meeting. Elsewhere, China released profits data for July (weak again) and there was August consumer confidence in Taiwan (also soft).

In today's update, a slowdown in upstream services price inflation in Japan, and firm property price expectations in the Korean consumer confidence survey. In Taiwan, retail sales are still falling, while IP shows the industrial sector is now also starting to lose some momentum.