East Asia Econ

Lots of cycle updates today, with all the month-end data for Japan and Korea, as well as Q4 GDP data for Taiwan, which was another blow-out. China's main data release today showed service exports rising, though not nearly as quickly as exports of goods.

Japan consumer confidence and export data show a further lessening of the two big negative shocks of 2025. Consumer confidence has bounced in Korea too, but that isn't based on a strengthening labour market. Also today, an announcement: subscribers can now access all our data via an API.

In light of Trump's threats against South Korea, an update on tariff levels in the region. Levies on China are highest, but China's USD export prices have been rangebound for 18M, and the stability of PPI in 2H25 has continued into 2026. Finally, my latest video discussing fiscal fear in Japan.

Data releases everywhere today: industrial profits in China; services PPI inflation in Japan; business sentiment through February in Korea; and Taiwan's leading indicator and consumer confidence.

An update on visitor arrivals across the region, the quarterly household, business and banker sentiment surveys from the PBC, and insights from the BOJ's full outlook report that was released today.

The BOJ didn't say much new today, but the authorities overall did make more of an attempt to put a lid on recent market volatility. In Korea, both consumer confidence and house price expectations remain strong. Taiwan retail sales slowed into end 2025, but IP took another step up.

Exports and the BOJ's senior loan officer survey in Japan; lending standards and Q4 GDP in Korea; and Taiwan's labour market data for December.

Three updates today: details of the surge in China's auto exports at end-2025; further signs of improvement in Japan's government finances (at least that's true before the election pledges); and strengthening Korean export data.

Detailed Q4 GDP data for China show construction (especially) and manufacturing falling further as a proportion of output, but services rising. In Korea, PPI inflation in December remained at 1.9% YoY. Taiwan export orders crept up in last month, another sign that activity remains resilient.

Today's big update was Q4 GDP data for China, showing a nominal pick-up, but (as might be expected) conflicting details. In Japan, Q4 consumer confidence improved, while data through November showed a further acceleration in services output.

Highlights of a longer note reviewing China's cycle and market prospects. Also, a couple of charts on Japan, showing the continued firmness of business confidence, and today's weekly flow data.

Lots to discuss today: domestic and foreign money flows in China; PPI and export prices in Japan; the BOK's January monetary policy meeting; and the read-through for Taiwan's economy from TSMC's bullish 2026 outlook.

China's exports ended 2025 with a bang, with auto shipments surging. Import demand is much weaker, but did at least trend up last year. Also today, some charts on bank lending in Japan, which is strong, and a cycle review of Korea before tomorrow's BOK meeting.

Some charts showing how Korea is structurally converging with Japan and Taiwan. One area of convergence is the current account surplus, which across the region is large and growing, now up to 6% of GDP in Japan. Other data today in Japan reiterate the improvement in cyclical momentum in late 2025.

A longer note summarising cycle and structure and arguing that risk-reward is moving in favour of Asian currencies. Against that framework, today's export data for the first 10 days of January in Korea were soft. But Taiwan wage data for November tick the right boxes.

Longer notes today on China inflation, Korea balance of payments, and Taiwan 2025 trade and external surpluses. In Japan, data were released today on the monetary base, consumption, and 20-day exports.

More charts than usual on Japan today, with the Q3 sakura report and output gap from the BOJ, November wages, and December consumer confidence. Also, Q3 flow of funds data for Korea, which offers another perspective on the outflows that have been weighing on the KRW.

Data on FX reserves and PBC liquidity operations in December suggest the PBC balance sheet has become more supportive for growth. The Japan services PMI was weaker, but the commentary doesn't suggest a real change in direction. Services prices suggest core inflation in Taiwan has bottomed.

An update on Japan's fiscal position after the release of the budget for 2026, and detailed data on government interest payments and revenue through Q125. Also, a look at financial stability issues in Korea, and fx reserves and the currency in Taiwan.

Looking through the data releases over the two weeks I've been away, and two themes stand out: rebounding activity, and firmer inflation. Both trends are most obvious in Korea. The picture is more mixed in China, but even there it looks like less deflation through to Chinese New Year.

Detailed trade data show hybrids becoming the big driver of China's auto export surge. The political tensions with China have yet to derail Japan's tourism industry. In no surprise to anyone, Taiwan's central bank kept policy on hold in its Q4 monetary policy meeting.

Lots to update on Japan today, with the flash PMI, machine orders, foreign trade and the flow of funds. And on Korea, there are the minutes from yesterday of the November MPB meeting, and today's release of the Q3 financial statement analysis data.

Today has been very quiet for releases, so just a few charts on Japan after the release of the full Tankan survey for Q4.

In addition to all today's data from China, some comments on Friday's monetary release and yesterday's high-frequency price data. In Japan, in addition to the Tankan, the BOJ today released the results of a special wage survey. Taiwan FDI data show investment in the US this year falling to USD4bn.