East Asia Econ

Today's main release was PPI in Japan, with the most interesting takeaway being higher export prices. In Korea, weekly prices show food and energy inflation softening so far in February. Data in China show interest rates for mortgages stabilising, but continuing to decline for firms.

China's CPI inflation dipped in January, but that was holiday-related. PPI,by contrast, rose MoM for the second consecutive month. Labour market data in Korea isn't getting worse, but is sluggish. By contrast, Taiwan wage growth in 2025 reached the highest since 2000. Also today, my latest video.

A longer note on Korean household savings and consumption. To put that in context, this daily includes charts giving the regional picture over the last 30 years. The only cyclical indicator released today was TSMC's sales for January, which were strong, but might not mean much given LNY distortions.

Lots of data in Japan today, which again show the cycle warming up, and that Takaichi's economic inheritance is very different from that of Abe almost 15 years ago. Taiwan's trade data are distorted by LNY, so stronger sales to China, and of non-semi products, are interesting, not conclusive.

Korea's December BOP data show a big CA surplus – but even bigger capital outflows. Japan's exports data for the first 20 days of January perked up, but consumption in December slowed. Also today, a link to the EAE data API, which now allows access to almost 700,000 data series.

Weekly flow data show a moderation of overseas bond acquisitions by Japanese buyers – but that don't show whether they are now selling overseas and buying JGBs. FX reserve accumulation in Taiwan remains modest. Inflation fell in January, but that is related to Chinese New Year.

China's S&P services PMI was solid again in January, and Japan's was strong. High-frequency data for China suggest PPI was unchanged MoM in January for the seventh consecutive month. That stability reflects global factors, but also domestic policy, with the PBC last month again increasing liquidity.

Japan's monetary base continues to shrink, though it is still at 90% of GDP. CPI inflation in Korea remains around the 2% target, and given the outlook for exports, is now unlikely to fall further.

Korea's January exports were boosted by workdays and chips. However, the rise in the manufacturing PMIs in Japan, Korea and Taiwan last month suggest some broadening of the cycle. China's PMIs were more mixed. They did show better nominal momentum, but that lift reflected global metals prices.

Lots of cycle updates today, with all the month-end data for Japan and Korea, as well as Q4 GDP data for Taiwan, which was another blow-out. China's main data release today showed service exports rising, though not nearly as quickly as exports of goods.

Japan consumer confidence and export data show a further lessening of the two big negative shocks of 2025. Consumer confidence has bounced in Korea too, but that isn't based on a strengthening labour market. Also today, an announcement: subscribers can now access all our data via an API.

In light of Trump's threats against South Korea, an update on tariff levels in the region. Levies on China are highest, but China's USD export prices have been rangebound for 18M, and the stability of PPI in 2H25 has continued into 2026. Finally, my latest video discussing fiscal fear in Japan.

Data releases everywhere today: industrial profits in China; services PPI inflation in Japan; business sentiment through February in Korea; and Taiwan's leading indicator and consumer confidence.

An update on visitor arrivals across the region, the quarterly household, business and banker sentiment surveys from the PBC, and insights from the BOJ's full outlook report that was released today.

The BOJ didn't say much new today, but the authorities overall did make more of an attempt to put a lid on recent market volatility. In Korea, both consumer confidence and house price expectations remain strong. Taiwan retail sales slowed into end 2025, but IP took another step up.

Exports and the BOJ's senior loan officer survey in Japan; lending standards and Q4 GDP in Korea; and Taiwan's labour market data for December.

Three updates today: details of the surge in China's auto exports at end-2025; further signs of improvement in Japan's government finances (at least that's true before the election pledges); and strengthening Korean export data.

Detailed Q4 GDP data for China show construction (especially) and manufacturing falling further as a proportion of output, but services rising. In Korea, PPI inflation in December remained at 1.9% YoY. Taiwan export orders crept up in last month, another sign that activity remains resilient.

Today's big update was Q4 GDP data for China, showing a nominal pick-up, but (as might be expected) conflicting details. In Japan, Q4 consumer confidence improved, while data through November showed a further acceleration in services output.

Highlights of a longer note reviewing China's cycle and market prospects. Also, a couple of charts on Japan, showing the continued firmness of business confidence, and today's weekly flow data.

Lots to discuss today: domestic and foreign money flows in China; PPI and export prices in Japan; the BOK's January monetary policy meeting; and the read-through for Taiwan's economy from TSMC's bullish 2026 outlook.

China's exports ended 2025 with a bang, with auto shipments surging. Import demand is much weaker, but did at least trend up last year. Also today, some charts on bank lending in Japan, which is strong, and a cycle review of Korea before tomorrow's BOK meeting.

Some charts showing how Korea is structurally converging with Japan and Taiwan. One area of convergence is the current account surplus, which across the region is large and growing, now up to 6% of GDP in Japan. Other data today in Japan reiterate the improvement in cyclical momentum in late 2025.

A longer note summarising cycle and structure and arguing that risk-reward is moving in favour of Asian currencies. Against that framework, today's export data for the first 10 days of January in Korea were soft. But Taiwan wage data for November tick the right boxes.

Longer notes today on China inflation, Korea balance of payments, and Taiwan 2025 trade and external surpluses. In Japan, data were released today on the monetary base, consumption, and 20-day exports.