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China - PMI

  • Paul Cavey

Paul Cavey

Mar 31, 2022 • 3 min read

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Taiwan – another export surge
Public Post

Taiwan – another export surge

A lot of market discussion in recent days has centred on hedging by the lifers. The central bank, however, has argued that the move in the TWD was driven by exporters. That is believable: exports grew remarkably strongly in 2020-22, and have done so again through April this year.
May 8, 2025 1 min read
Taiwan – inflation continuing to slow
Public Post

Taiwan – inflation continuing to slow

My framework for Taiwan and the TWD is a structural economic recovery driving a normalisation of inflation after the near deflation of the 20 years before 2020. That remains the theme, but there is now a clear cyclical slowing of CPI. That will intensify if tariffs trigger an export recession.
May 7, 2025 1 min read
China – the PBC won't have finished yet
Public Post

China – the PBC won't have finished yet

The exact timing of monetary easing can vary, but today's interest rate and RRR cuts are not a surprise. Today's moves are consistent with the PBC's usual reaction function, and with inflation so weak, further loosening should be expected.
May 7, 2025
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