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Region – latest chart pack
A chart pack summarising our current views
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China – 2020 redux
After a strong start to the year, April credit growth was weak. The apparently short-lived credit cycle is reminiscent of 2020, but three years ago and the economy was boosted by exports and property. Real estate is much weaker this time, with mortgage lending collapsing again in April.
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China – really, in deflation
That China is in deflation – both PPI and CPI fell MoM in April – while the rest of the world struggles with inflation really is a remarkable outcome. Underlying inflation isn't quite that weak: core CPI inflation remains around 0.7% YoY. But still, there really isn't upwards pressure on prices.
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Korea – labour market stable
The labour market went sideways in April, keeping the unemployment rate at 2.6%, the lowest since the 1990s. Non-manufacturing business sentiment suggests employment will remain around current levels for the next 6M. That doesn't seem likely, on its own, to bring down core inflation.
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China – not crazy, but still strong
China's exports weakened a bit in April from the heady level of March, but remained strong relative to usual indicators of export demand. Imports remain weak, a reminder of the softness of the domestic industrial cycle. The trade surplus continues to widen.
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The East Asia Economist
Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Japan – strengthening
Japan's cycle is gaining momentum, led by a recovery in services. In this context, the recent softness of the labour market data looks even odder. The BOJ's outlook report wasn't concerned, highlighting this year's strong shunto round. This will keep upwards pressure on core CPI.
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China – still soft
The recovery in tourist numbers over the May holiday was impressive, and the Markit PMI was strong again. But our impression remains that the pickup in overall activity is underwhelming.
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Taiwan – weak PMI, not CPI
Core inflation is only 2%, but that's high by Taiwan's historical standards, and relative to the current extreme weakness of manufacturing. Inflation is being supported by the post-covid normalisation of services, a phenomenon that will be attracting the attention of the central bank.
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Korea – core inflation firm, activity bottoming
The case for BOK cuts is simple: the cycle has weakened, headline CPI is falling, and core will follow. But so far, our model suggests only a modest easing of tightening pressure, and there are now signs of activity bottoming. The missing ingredient remains a slackening of the labour market.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Taiwan – unusual domestic strength
Taiwan's domestic economy and inflation are proving more resilient than the weakness of the export cycle would suggest. This desynchronisation is partly due to covid, and as long as it persists, means the usual ways of looking at CBC behaviour could well prove misleading.
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China – manufacturing contracting again
We've been more cautious on the outlook than the consensus, and remain so after the official April PMIs. The one indicator that gives us pause for thought is the strength of the construction PMI, but that would be more convincing if there were broader signs of the property cycle really lifting.
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China – industrial cycle update
We had started to become hopeful that the property market was picking up, but transactions have fallen back down again in April. Other indicators for the industrial cycle also look bearish, with output prices weak, and profits still falling.
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Japan – BOJ and data continuity
As widely expected, the BOJ meeting today didn't announce changes in policy. Data releases also showed consistency, with Tokyo inflation in April still accelerating but the labour market in March going sideways.
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Korea – inflation falling, cycle rising?
Business sentiment remains weak enough to suggest BOK cuts, and the fall in consumer inflation expectations indicates some easing of headline inflation pressure. But there's also signs in both surveys of an upturn in the cycle, creating a risk that core inflation won't fall so far.
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The East Asia Economist
Decisions about changing the policy framework are interwoven with deciding that there really is a generational shift in inflation occurring. Given the BOJ's history of premature tightening, that requires almost Jedi-like levels of bravery, and we doubt the bank is ready to reach that conclusion yet.
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Korea – no technical recession
Driven by private consumption, Korea avoided technical recession through March. The strength of consumer spending was a surprise, so we'd assume that downside risks remain. But it isn't clear that today's data will affect the BOK's view of 2H recovery, which is based on the idea of stronger exports.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – less certain export floor
Leading indicators suggest a continued double-digit YoY contraction in regional exports in Q2. Demand remains particularly weak from China, and for tech. China's own export data bucked the regional trend, but that looks too good to be true, not being validated yet by any other data points.
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Japan – core inflation up again
Core inflation accelerated in March. The feed through from the big fall in import price inflation from mid-22 is probably only about to start, so the BOJ's view that headline CPI will ease may still prove correct. But the strength of core makes it tough to argue that there is no domestic inflation.
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China – unconvincing
The sell-side and media consensus seems to be that the GDP data show clear recovery. Investors seem less convinced. We'd guess this reflects data discrepancies which undermine the headline message of recovery, and need to be resolved to have conviction that the cycle is gaining momentum.
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China – consumption, apparently
Detailed GDP data show growth in Q1 being driven by consumption and investment, with zero contribution from net exports. Hospitality grew almost 15% YoY That's not as big a bounce as in 2020, but the base effect is smaller, and indeed, the government has revised up Q422 growth from zero to 0.6% QoQ.
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China – still sluggish
The headline data for Q1 look better, but the details were much weaker. While YoY growth in retail sales rose over 10%, in MoM terms it fell back, with other data showing household income growth in Q1 remaining very weak. At best, the recovery remains fragile.