East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

A longer note summarising cycle and structure and arguing that risk-reward is moving in favour of Asian currencies. Against that framework, today's export data for the first 10 days of January in Korea were soft. But Taiwan wage data for November tick the right boxes.

Paul Cavey

Jan 12, 2026 • 2 min read

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Region – cycles, structures and currencies

Using an update of my regional chartpack to think about exchange rates. Specifically, I think the cycle and structure dynamics are moving risk-reward in favour of Asian currencies. I'd argue that is true if the global picture is unchanged, but it could also be true if conditions in the US falter.

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Last week, next week

Themes: capital flows v CNY appreciation in China; fiscal fear v real policy rate in Japan; foreign v domestic equity strength in Korea; policy status quo v export surge in Taiwan.

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East Asia Today

Longer notes today on China inflation, Korea balance of payments, and Taiwan 2025 trade and external surpluses. In Japan, data were released today on the monetary base, consumption, and 20-day exports.