East Asia Econ

East Asia Today

Today's big update was Q4 GDP data for China, showing a nominal pick-up, but (as might be expected) conflicting details. In Japan, Q4 consumer confidence improved, while data through November showed a further acceleration in services output.

Paul Cavey

Jan 19, 2026 • 2 min read

Subscribers Only

China – nominal pick-up

Most important for markets is today's Q4 data is the pick-up in the deflator and nominal GDP, which external trends suggest can run further. In terms of the details, the data show two big discrepancies: collapsing FAI v industrial stability, and falling retail sales v rising consumption share of GDP

Subscribers Only

Last week, next week

Last week's most important release was China's USD100bn fx settlement data. Capital inflows will boost money supply. A stronger CNY should also help support regional currencies. The impact is overshadowed by politics in Japan, but should be more powerful in Korea and Taiwan given the semi boom.

Subscribers Only

East Asia Today

Highlights of a longer note reviewing China's cycle and market prospects. Also, a couple of charts on Japan, showing the continued firmness of business confidence, and today's weekly flow data.