East Asia Today

The usual second-day release of more detailed GDP data for China showed investment particularly weak in Q3. In contrast, fx settlement data in September was firm, showing continued capital inflows. In Taiwan, export orders last month don't indicate that the cycle is yet turning down.

Paul Cavey

Oct 20, 2026 • 2 min read

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East Asia Today

The highlight today was the Q3 GDP release in China. Along with an update of all the usual cycle charts, I've also updated my guide to China's consumption data. In Japan, growth in services activity eased back in August, with a rare contraction in consumer-related services activity like eating out.

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China – enough for 2026, but not 2027

From the perspective of a government that wants to meet a 2026 growth target without having to shift policy, the September data are encouraging. But the 2027 outlook for the domestic economy is looking more challenging. That will become more visible if global demand and price trends change.

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East Asia in Four Charts

Highlights of last week's indicators: China's import shortfall, loose financial conditions in Japan, rising export prices in Korea, and more evidence of labour market tightness in Taiwan.