East Asia Today

CPB's trade volume data show China's exports remaining strong, but imports flat-lining. Domestically, the second round of upstream price pressure in China since the start of the Iran War has lost momentum. That, however, is because of coal rather than oil prices.

Paul Cavey

Oct 26, 2026 • 2 min read

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East Asia in Four Charts

Highlights of last week's indicators: the fall in the consumption share of GDP in China; why JPY depreciation hasn't boosted Japan's export volumes; the prospects for another double-digit rise in nominal GDP in Korea in 2027; and how wage growth in Taiwan is leading the region.

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Last week, next week

The sustainability of the AI cycle is critical for the region. If it ends, rates will likely be lower, but currencies not necessarily weaker. Otherwise, my themes are: China – tougher 2027; Japan – flatter curve; Korea – macro spillover; Taiwan – market spillover.

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East Asia Today

As expected CPI inflation in Japan picked up in September, and leading indicators point to further upside ahead. Taiwan softened last month, but that is at odds with strong exports. Retail sales, by contrast, were strong, consistent with labour market dynamics explored in a longer note on wages.