East Asia Today
In Korea, we've had the BOK minutes (published yesterday), and June JOLTS data. In Japan, the only releases have been 10D trade data for July and June Toyota sales. China's July Politburo was also released. That doesn't look to contain surprises, but I'll be going through it later.
Korea
Korea – growth v household debt. Yesterday's minutes showed the clear tension for monetary policy between weak growth and financial excess. The BOK seems confident that the latest macro-pru measures will work. That sets the stage for more easing, though the committee in July wasn't quite as concerned about growth as it had been.
Korea – labour market still softening. Today's release of local JOLTS data shows the labour market remained soft in June. Vacancy and quit rates continued to fall, hiring of temp workers eased, and filling rates are trending up. The fall in the vacancy rate in particular is a sign that wage growth remains under pressure.
Japan
Trade data for the first 1o days of July showed some softening, though nothing dramatic – and anyway, in volume terms exports haven't played a big role in this cycle. Toyota meanwhile reported recorded sales for the first six months of 2025.
