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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – mfg recovery, but still modest
The regional mfg cycle is recovering, but gaps between official and S&P PMIs mean it is difficult to gauge strength. However, all surveys do point to a broad-based firming in input price inflation.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – Korea and Taiwan chart pack
In slides laying out a comparison with Korea, we argue that Taiwan's macroeconomy is close to a structural break to the upside. An export recovery that is as strong as has been priced in by equities would likely be the tipping point.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – monthly chart pack
Our monthly chart pack. Three themes stand out: the confidence of the BOJ; the significance of policy that tackles property inventories in China; and Taiwan remaining as the big post-covid winner.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – export recovery still mixed
The export cycle is recovering, but more in volume than value terms, and in Taiwan and China than Korea. This won't remove worries about weak consumption in Korea and China. But it likely is sufficient to keep Taiwan's economy tight, and the CBC will likely be hiking again if exports rise more.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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China – the test of PPI as a cycle
We are getting near a test of our thesis that PPI deflation in China is mainly cyclical, with global commodity prices suggesting a PPI recovery.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – the structural rise in wages
Not just in Japan but Taiwan too, there are signs of a structural break from persistently low wage inflation. The implication is that the gap between nominal monetary settings between both and the US is likely to be narrower in the future than it has been in the past.
Members Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – manufacturing cycle
It is always tricky to get a real sense of the manufacturing cycle early in the year when the data are so distorted by the LNY holiday. From what we can tell, it doesn't look like there's been a big pick-up yet, though leading indicators continue to point to upside ahead.
Public Post
China: lessons from Taiwan
Our opinion piece today from Nikkei Asia.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Region – the end of secular depreciation
A chart pack presenting a framework for regional currencies. We use secular JPY and TWD depreciation to lay out the framework; apply that to the CNY today; and finally, argue that there are reasons to think the structural weakening of the TWD and JPY is likely ending.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.