The platform for tracking and understanding East Asia macro
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
The export cycle is recovering, but more in volume than value terms, and in Taiwan and China than Korea. This won't remove worries about weak consumption in Korea and China. But it likely is sufficient to keep Taiwan's economy tight, and the CBC will likely be hiking again if exports rise more.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
We are getting near a test of our thesis that PPI deflation in China is mainly cyclical, with global commodity prices suggesting a PPI recovery.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Not just in Japan but Taiwan too, there are signs of a structural break from persistently low wage inflation. The implication is that the gap between nominal monetary settings between both and the US is likely to be narrower in the future than it has been in the past.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
It is always tricky to get a real sense of the manufacturing cycle early in the year when the data are so distorted by the LNY holiday. From what we can tell, it doesn't look like there's been a big pick-up yet, though leading indicators continue to point to upside ahead.
Our opinion piece today from Nikkei Asia.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A chart pack presenting a framework for regional currencies. We use secular JPY and TWD depreciation to lay out the framework; apply that to the CNY today; and finally, argue that there are reasons to think the structural weakening of the TWD and JPY is likely ending.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Korea's trade surplus with China has collapsed, taking with it Korea's overall surplus. This offers a clear illustration of China's competitiveness, and argues for CNY strength, not weakness. But it also indicates that the relative fundamentals for the KRW are also deteriorating.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
With the Markit PMI holding up and PSL funding rising, China doesn't look as bad as market sentiment. Exports in Korea and PMIs in Korea, Taiwan and Japan show the industrial cycle improving, but not quickly. For Japan and Korea, that can still be important given elevated non-manufacturing PMIs.
A slide pack summarising our recent research and views on the region
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
TSMC's outlook for 2024 is bullish for the regional export cycle. But other export indicators are yet to validate that picture. There's enough to remain positive about the TWD. But it feels like there is some way to go before the export cycle can start to impact rate expectations in Taiwan and Korea
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A slide pack from a presentation on the lessons China can learn from the development experiences of other economies in the region
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.