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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – the structural rise in wages
Not just in Japan but Taiwan too, there are signs of a structural break from persistently low wage inflation. The implication is that the gap between nominal monetary settings between both and the US is likely to be narrower in the future than it has been in the past.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – manufacturing cycle
It is always tricky to get a real sense of the manufacturing cycle early in the year when the data are so distorted by the LNY holiday. From what we can tell, it doesn't look like there's been a big pick-up yet, though leading indicators continue to point to upside ahead.
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China: lessons from Taiwan
Our opinion piece today from Nikkei Asia.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Region – the end of secular depreciation
A chart pack presenting a framework for regional currencies. We use secular JPY and TWD depreciation to lay out the framework; apply that to the CNY today; and finally, argue that there are reasons to think the structural weakening of the TWD and JPY is likely ending.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – as Korea, so the world?
Korea's trade surplus with China has collapsed, taking with it Korea's overall surplus. This offers a clear illustration of China's competitiveness, and argues for CNY strength, not weakness. But it also indicates that the relative fundamentals for the KRW are also deteriorating.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – PSL and PMIs
With the Markit PMI holding up and PSL funding rising, China doesn't look as bad as market sentiment. Exports in Korea and PMIs in Korea, Taiwan and Japan show the industrial cycle improving, but not quickly. For Japan and Korea, that can still be important given elevated non-manufacturing PMIs.
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Region –monthly chart pack
A slide pack summarising our recent research and views on the region
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – still only amber
TSMC's outlook for 2024 is bullish for the regional export cycle. But other export indicators are yet to validate that picture. There's enough to remain positive about the TWD. But it feels like there is some way to go before the export cycle can start to impact rate expectations in Taiwan and Korea
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Last week, this week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Lessons from Asia for China
A slide pack from a presentation on the lessons China can learn from the development experiences of other economies in the region
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Members Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – manufacturing cycle
Korea's PMI is now back at 50, but while Taiwan's remains below that level, the upside potential looks bigger. Taiwan domestic momentum also looks stronger. Inflation is higher in Korea, but the risk that the central bank has to raise rates again next year is probably a bit higher in Taiwan.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – slow export turn
Both Taiwan export orders for October and Korea exports for the first 20 days of Korea show YoY improvement. However, in level terms the recovery is less clear.