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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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China – Taking stock
The Politburo meeting excluded the phrase "housing is for living, not speculation", which seems one step towards our idea of last week, that officials say "property is for speculation". The markets liked the change, but we'd still want more help for households to get excited about a cyclical upturn.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – double-dip, then up again?
Exports were soft in June, and Korea's 20-day data shows no change in July. Indeed, the cycle looks engaged in a double dip. Market indicators are more optimistic for the next 6M. That still seems like the risk case, but would be a big deal for central banks in Korea and Taiwan.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Region – cycle summary
A short video discussing our current views.
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Japan – no change
The BOJ Tankan suggests continued modest growth and easing inflation. There are reasons to think the risks around this outlook are to the upside. But until those risks become reality, and in particular that the labour market tightens, the BOJ likely won't be in a rush to move policy.
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Region – Taking stock
The key issue for macro in the region is whether exports are about to lift in the way equity markets are suggesting. Korean semiconductor exports did bounce in June. But manufacturing sentiment surveys in the region in June weren't strong, and early indicators for DM demand have weakened.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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The East Asia Economist
A slide pack on demographic dynamics, in particular addressing why the Japan experience doesn't tell us much about how changes in population structures will impact economies elsewhere.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Region – Taking stock
Our latest slide pack summarising cyclical developments.
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Region – the upside risks for exports
Our base case would be exports flat-line the next 3M. But we can't ignore the upside risk being suggested by equities. That will become more meaningful for the outlook if it starts to show up in regional business sentiment, with the next check on that being the Korean confidence data next week.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Video – regional themes
A short video of this week's regional themes
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – Taking stock
Regional data show three themes: 1) Differentiation: Japan strongest, Taiwan weakest; 3) Diversification in export markets: autos and DM holding up while tech and China remain weak; and 3) Desynchronisation: despite the weakness in exports and industry, services and retail sales are holding up.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Region – Taking stock
A slidepack summarising our cyclical and market views
Subscribers Only
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post
Video
A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation.
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Region – latest chart pack
A chart pack summarising our current views