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Paul Cavey

Jan 12, 2023

East Asia Today

China's IP and services activity were stable in October, but were over-shadowed by another big drop in FAI. That can't be entirely dismissed, even though the data aren't so reliable. In Japan, services activity continues to trend up. In Korea, import prices are rising, but so are semi export prices.

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China – not yet soft enough

The October data are soft, but mixed: on the one hand investment terrible and property weak, on the other, output and services more stable. That probably doesn't add up to a change in policy. My idea of stabilisation does look a bit more tenuous, and would be over if upstream prices give way again.

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Korea – watching semi export prices

Import prices are rising, but not by enough to think upstream inflation is about to explode. More interesting are export prices. Auto export prices aren't rebounding. By contrast, semiconductor export prices seem to be gaining upwards momentum – which is important given the rise in spot DRAM prices.