East Asia Econ

Taiwan – July foreign trade

Taiwan exports look to have peaked. Shipments haven't started to fall yet, but the stalling in upwards momentum should still continue to weigh on the TWD.

Paul Cavey

Aug 8, 2022 • 2 min read

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East Asia Today

I am catching up with things after my break. Surveys of the last few days and today's trade data for August show tariffs aren't yet triggering a big macro dislocation in Japan. That's important for the BOJ. In China, the macro data for August show the bottoming of the activity remains fragile.

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Japan – still no tariff-dislocation in manufacturing

Manufacturing sentiment in the EW (Aug) and Reuters Tankan (Sep) surveys is back above the long-term average. Export volumes have softened the last couple of months, but are still above end-2024 levels. This is probably a lesser impact from tariffs than the BOJ had expected.

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Last week, next week

The major themes: the ending of the first stage of China's post-2020 forced structural adjustment; in Japan, peaking of inflation but BOJ still to hike; BOK cuts but inflation higher than I would have expected; expecting renewed TWD strength. I am now away for a few days, back on September 16th.