Taiwan – TSMC, Trump and the TWD

I can't claim to have expected the 10% surge in the TWD in the last couple of days. But I have been arguing for a while that the risks of a structural appreciation of the currency were real and rising. This is a brief presentation from March that highlights the issues.

Paul Cavey

May 5, 2025

tw_themes_mar_25

tw_themes_mar_25.pptx

4 MB

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East Asia Today

The longer note today looks at a BOK report on spillovers from the chip boom. Exports in both China and Taiwan were softer in July, but probably because of noise. Japan released consumption data for June, exports for the first 20 days of July, and BOJ transaction data for the full month.

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Korea – the BOK's view of the TOT boom

The BOK this week published a nice report on spillovers from the terms of trade boom. It wouldn't be fair to say that this pays only lip service to the usual concerns on why spillovers might be limited. But the report's central expectation is that the impact will be "both sizable and persistent"

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East Asia Today

Korea's current account surplus, already enormous in May, rose further in June. That, and the easing of foreigner equity selling, has allowed (at last) some strengthening of the KRW. Taiwan headline inflation ticked down in July, but underlying price pressures remain firm.