Weekly summary

Paul Cavey

May 8, 2022 •

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Korea - lower inflation expectations

Inflation expectations are falling, but remain high in absolute terms. The pace of BOK tightening should slow, but inflation expectations need to be lower, with evidence of actual services price inflation falling, before the BOK goes on hold.

Paul Cavey Sep 27, 2022 • 1 min read

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China – taking stock

The currency is on the move again. Interest rate differentials suggest fair value for $CNY of 7.3; the weakness of the domestic economy and the over-shooting that normally happens with $CNY moves suggests more upside still. This move increases risks for China's economy, and for global markets.

Paul Cavey Sep 26, 2022 • 5 min read

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China – industrial prices stabilise

YoY upstream price inflation is fading. Sequentially, however, there's some stabilisation. That's consistent with policy, but isn't yet likely to be reflecting a fundamental turn. Activity usually improves after the summer, and leading indicators like liquidity preference continue to fall.

Paul Cavey Sep 24, 2022 • 1 min read

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