Data today show headline inflation fell below the BOK's 2% target in September for the first time since April 2021. But core inflation isn't continuing to drop. Sequential core looks to be bottoming around 1.8%, and the rebound in personal services inflation is continuing, from 2% in Q1 to 3% now.

Taiwan manufacturing should be on a big upswing, driven by recovery from the 2022-23 recession, and AI demand for semis. And yet, even before now, data have been patchy, and the PMIs suggest that mfg started to contract again in September. If that's the end of the upturn, it didn't last long.

The equities move has been extreme. To argue that this heralds broader economic recovery relies on: 1) the YC moving next as savings get mobilised; 2) the YC mattering less as an indicator than equities. Both are possible, but while the YC has issues as a leading indicator, so does the stockmarket.

Underlying core inflation in Tokyo in September continued to run at around a 2% annualised rate. The trimmed mean has stabilised at a bit below that, and the proportion of rising items has ticked up. Inflation isn't accelerating, but there's no sign of a slowdown either.

The 17% YoY fall in profits in August is exaggerated by comparison with the spike 12M previously. But the details are sluggish. Corporate revenues haven't yet regained the level of November 2023, and except for early 2023, the profit share of GDP is lower than any time since 2009.

That data in the last few months show export volumes growing faster than pre-covid rates is remarkable. But equally significant for China and the world is the total stalling of imports. Before 2020 they were growing with exports, but since then, they haven't risen at all.

After a sluggish Q2, we'd started to think the best of Taiwan's recovery was over. But IP data today, as well as export volumes, are consistent with the big bounce seen in August export values. Retail sales were weaker, but still suggest much more resilience than consumption in Korea.

Services PPI inflation eased back in August, but that was partly base effect. The BOJ's new high-labour content measure isn't that different, and remains near 3%. Sequentially, SPPI is running around 2%, but all the volatility since 2022 makes it difficult to discern the underlying trend.

August export order data don't signal any change in direction in the modest export upturn of recent months. The more interesting shifts are structural. China orders are flat, and are now only 60% of US levels. The overseas production ratio is the lowest since 2009.

Against the backdrop of today's flurry of policy announcements, a reminder of how much policy need to do. Industrial prices so far through September have continued to drop with building material prices now the lowest since 2016.

There's still little sign of economic damage from the market volatility of July and early August. Like other surveys, today's flash services PMI was strong. Input prices eased, but output prices didn't as "firms looked to pass higher cost burdens in to clients".

After adjusting for working days, the pick-up in YoY export growth seen in the 10-day data was repeated in today's 20-day update. But that is largely base effect. Sequential growth has ticked up, but isn't repeating the upswing of 1H24.