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China - weekly update
The government, fearing inflation or perhaps CNY weakness, is stepping up easing, but trying rather furtively.
Paul Cavey
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Weekly summary
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Japan - March CPI
Headline CPI in March rose 1.2% YoY. That leaves inflation below previous peaks in 2008, 2013 and 2017, but the headline CPI data suffer from a lot of distortions, and more accurate measures indicate inflation is already near highs not seen in the last thirty years.
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Region - March/April exports
External momentum has softened in recent months, but the downturn hasn't yet become very sharp. Data this week from across different economies suggests that there's no change yet in this picture.
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China - weekly update
The government's plan right now is to get the virus under control, and then guide companies back to work, thereby lifting the economy out of the covid shock without having to commit to a whole load of new 'stimulus'.
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China - March activity data
The National Bureau of Statistics reported today that the economy continued to recover in Q1, and overall was "stable". That's quite the positive spin.
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East Asia Econ. Weekly summary
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The China Diviner
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China - reserve requirement cut
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China - March property prices
Somewhat strangely, Chinese property prices in March continued to show signs of bottoming out.
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Korea - April BOK meeting
The Bank of Korea decided today to raise the policy rate by a further 25bp, the fourth hike in this current cycle. From the perspective of BOK leadership - the bank currently being between governors - this was a mild surprise. But from the point of view of the economy, it was less unexpected. Activity has shown signs of peaking, but in recent weeks inflation has become more of a
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China - March foreign trade
YoY export growth is clearly slowing, and while the (somewhat patchy) leading indicators available for Chinese export growth suggest this weakening continues, the downside looks somewhat limited for now.
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Japan - February machinery orders
Even allowing for month-to-month volatility, Japanese machine orders in February were soft.
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Korea - March employment
After the jump in February, it wasn't a surprise that labour market data softened in March. That just looks like a correction though
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China - March money & credit
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China - March inflation
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China - weekly update
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East Asia Econ - weekly summary
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Taiwan - March exports
Export growth remained strong in March. Leading indicators are pointing to somewhat weaker growth ahead.
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Japan - consumer confidence
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Korea - March CPI
Korean headline CPI inflation rose again in March to 4.1% YoY. That's the highest since 2011, and well above the BOK's 2% target for inflation.
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Japan - Tankan
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China - weekly update
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台幣匯率和人民富裕意識的問題
美國在2021四月份斷定台灣符合所謂匯率操縱國的條件，可是除了央行之外，台灣社會毫無反應。這或許是因為台灣人知道美國一直以來都以自身利益為優先，匯率報告只是假均衡全球經濟之名來行壓制台灣競爭力之實.但我想呼籲台灣人關注台幣問題的兩個特點。第一，雖然經濟學家的意見平常莫衷一是，可是對台幣被低估的看法卻相去不遠。我個人認為台幣對美金的均衡匯率有可能大約接近二十五元，離最近幾年的三十左右很遠。第二，台幣升值意味著會提高人民的收入。 為了了解收入和匯率的關聯，我想用兩張圖片加以說明。第一張是以美金來計算的人均國內生產總值，從這張圖可以看出台灣的收入只有美國的百分之五十而已。這種情形好像具體地表現在我們常聽到的抱怨，比如畢業生的收入低於一千美金，台灣不是寶島而是鬼島等等。 可是事實並沒有那麼單純，其實可以說是完全相反。根據第二張圖片顯示的，台灣的平均收入並不低，不但領先其他亞洲國家，甚至快趕上美國。這張圖片的衡量標準是購買力，這個概念是生活水平除了收入之外也取決於生活成本。換句話說，雖然三萬台幣只能買一千美金，但在生活成本低的台灣，三萬台幣的價值其實高於在美國的一千美金。這也是這兩張圖片所反
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Taiwan - April PMI
The cycle has clearly peaked in Taiwan, but the gradient of the slowdown still isn't clear.