The platform for tracking and understanding East Asia macro
Regional exports remain on track to fall by about 10% YoY by the end of 2022. That deterioration will continue to put downwards pressure on currencies, particularly the TWD and KRW, but the pace of depreciation should begin to lessen.
Since the pandemic began, productivity has probably increased more quickly in Taiwan than any other major economy. As a result, Taiwan isn't facing the higher inflation and rates being experienced elsewhere. Taiwan's competitiveness instead reinforces structural trends for a stronger TWD.
Foreign trade data releases from Japan, Taiwan, and Korea today aren't entirely consistent, but it does look like exports are no longer growing, with signs of a slowdown in demand from the US beginning to appear.
External momentum has softened in recent months, but the downturn hasn't yet become very sharp. Data this week from across different economies suggests that there's no change yet in this picture.