Policy rhetoric is becoming easier, and FCI is easing. But there are two big headwinds to any of this having an impact: investor scepticism, and covid.
The robust growth momentum of the last couple of years hasn't completely disappeared, but the foundations are now definitely looking shakier.
The last BOK monetary policy meeting clearly showed that inflation was front and centre for the bank. Today's inflation data do nothing to change that prioritisation
Consumer confidence managed to improve in April, but just a touch. The optimistic argument would be this is just the beginnings of a more sustained lift as recovery in the services industry from covid finally gets under way.
The export cycle is showing clearer signs of at lest peaking, if not starting to roll over, with headline YoY export growth slowing again in April from 18.2% in March to 12.6%.
The government's view that it is homebuilders not homebuyers who are the "speculators" has big implications for where the property cycle goes next, and what that means for the economy.
It wasn't a surprise that the official PMIs fell sharply in April, but the charts are nonetheless quite dramatic.
Q1 growth was strong. The official leading indicator for March is pointing to a clear slowdown, but more gradually than the path suggested by equities.
The Politburo has gone a step further in supporting the economy, including real estate.
With the procyclicality that is built into YCC, not tightening when inflation is rising elsewhere and other central banks hiking necessitates the BOJ stepping up loosening. And that's exactly what the BOJ did at its monetary policy meeting today.
Korea's April business sentiment survey reaffirms recent themes for the economy. The cycle is now slowing, but not yet weak, and in fact on its own still strong enough to keep the BOK in tightening territory. At the same time inflation risks remain high. The central bank is likely to remain hawkish.
It would be tempting even to describe the labour market situation as goldilocks - except that the BOJ wants inflation to rise, and without that actually happening, the bank will keep policy loose, in turn putting pressure on the JPY to depreciate.
The BOJ's calculation of trimmed mean CPI moved up in March to 1.1% YoY, equal with the previous record high in the series last reached in 2008. The details though were a little soft.
The services PPI doesn't look as perky as some other inflation leads, but does indicate underlying inflation at least remaining around the current 1% for the next 2-3 months.
The government, fearing inflation or perhaps CNY weakness, is stepping up easing, but trying rather furtively.
Headline CPI in March rose 1.2% YoY. That leaves inflation below previous peaks in 2008, 2013 and 2017, but the headline CPI data suffer from a lot of distortions, and more accurate measures indicate inflation is already near highs not seen in the last thirty years.
External momentum has softened in recent months, but the downturn hasn't yet become very sharp. Data this week from across different economies suggests that there's no change yet in this picture.
The government's plan right now is to get the virus under control, and then guide companies back to work, thereby lifting the economy out of the covid shock without having to commit to a whole load of new 'stimulus'.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported today that the economy continued to recover in Q1, and overall was "stable". That's quite the positive spin.
Somewhat strangely, Chinese property prices in March continued to show signs of bottoming out.